jackky: Andy Pettitte8217s Curious Qualification

Andy Pettitte8217s Curious Qualification

19 Oct 2017 à 05:54am

Andy Pettitte will announce his (second) retirement this afternoon. Much is going to be written (again) about Pettittes career and, of course, his Hall of Fame prospects. Others are better in the history and biography stuff, and, well, at practically all from the other stuff, too. Personally, I'm not thinking about predicting whether a person will get into the Hall of Fame. Analyzing players is a thing. Sociological and psychological evaluations from the Hall of Fames voters is yet another (that isn't a commentary around the voters, just on my small interests). With regards to stuff like this, I favor to pay Cobi Hamilton Jersey attention to a players worthine s, that's, whether he should enter into the Hall of Fame.


Much is going to be written regarding Pettittes Hall of Fame contributions now as well as in the off-season, as much was written about his post-2010 retirement. I'm not likely to cover every angle or offer a final verdict. Rather, I wish to to discu s two or three tough angles for that sabermetric look at Pettittes case making it an intriguing topic.


For most (but not all) of this post I am going to use Wins Above Replacement (WAR) like a grounds for discu sion. It is not the only way to get into these things, and you will find ongoing debates about WAR and its variants. For the sake of dealing with the point, I will leave those aside for now, since i have think WAR, for all its i sues, is a great rough way of understanding a players value.


Peak Value


There is no simple algorithm for determining a players sabermetric Hall-worthine s, obviously. Few are likely to agree on general principles. Like a general guide and starting point, we can start with overall value. Something around 60 career wins is a great guide, although, again, it is not a complete baseline. Pettite pa ses the 60 WAR test, having about 68 career WAR right now.


But despite more complex metrics like Tom Brady Jersey WAR, the majority of us do not want mere accumulators in the Hall of Fame. We want players who were not only average or above-average for a significant slice of their career. Now things get a bit fuzzier. We sometimes use graphs as one example of this whenever we compare players. That's one great way, particularly when comparing the gamer under consideration with another whose worthine s is usually acknowledged. Another magic formula I prefer it to look at a players best three to five seasons. Without getting into all the different viewpoints, I believe that the player needs at least three really awesome seasons on his Hall of Fame resume. By awesome, I do not mean above average (3 or 4 wins) or ideal for a season (5 or 6). I mean really, excellent. Something similar to seven wins or more in a season.


As a good example, while Duke Sniders total career WAR is seemingly just barely in at at 63.5, he is still a no-doubt Hall of Famer largely due to his awesome peak from 1953 to 1956, four seasons by which he averaged about eight wins a year. He was very good before that, however that sustained peak (very quickly) really puts him outrageous, statistically speaking. Sure, WAR is not the most subtle of tools, so seven wins a season inside a peak is not a solid rule, but conveys the overall idea.


The peak facet of Pettittes case is not very strong within this light. He only has one season with around seven wins (7.2 in 1997), with no other season really comes close. He only had three other seasons over eighteen seasons using more than five wins. Pettitte never really had an out-and-out bad season, and was virtually always above average, but we're searching for not only above average for a really very long time. Longevity is a good thing, but could it be enough to outweigh Pettittes insufficient an truly impre sive number of peak seasons?


FIP, RA, and Peak Value Revisited


While one might buy FIP-based WAR (as implemented here at FanGraphs) on a season-to-season basis, one might question whether it really is Cody Wichmann Jersey appropriate as an look at a players career. In the end, Pettite has pitched 3300 innings, we likely have about as good an idea of his non-DIPS skill as any pitcher. Initially, this might appear to hurt his case for the Hall a little, as his RA9-WAR is around 62 as opposed to the 68 with FIP-based WAR. His career 86 ERA- is a bit worse than his career 84 FIP-. These aren't precision instruments, so the difference isn't that big in practical terms, but it is not really helping his case.


Unle Ryan Spadola Jersey s, that is, we return to the height value i sue. If we look at Pettittes seasonal RA9-WAR, his peak much more impre sive. His 1997 RA9-WAR (7.5) is about the just like his FIP-based WAR that year. However, the switch in perspective adds 2005 being an awesome, Hall-worthy peak season of 7.8 WAR. putting him up with the best pitchers in baseball that year.


Is it enough? Well, it is only one more great high season, and no third season really sticks out. And, as people have already done the mathematics in your head have previously determined, while RA9-WAR makes his two best seasons look a much better, additionally, it makes the majority of the rest of his seasons a little le s impre sive. So I don't know just how much it really helps or hurts him, other than bringing peoples focus on the amazing 2005 he and Rogers Clemens had for that Astros.


PostSeason Value


The above discu sion all handled Pettittes regular season performances, but because anyone who has paid attention knows, Pettitte has already established lots of postseason experience as well. He has pitched in eight different World Series, including five winners. He was the 2001 ALCS MVP. Altogether, Pettite started 44 games within the playoffs, and totaled 276 innings. For most of todays starting pitchers, that is almost another season-and-half of labor. He ERA- (84) was actually better in the postseason than it was in the regular season, even when his FIP was worse.


We don't have WAR (or other general value stat) for the postseason play at this time, and Markus Golden Jersey whether and just how it should be done is another i sue, but those innings clearly have some value. Your competition was tougher compared to the standard season. And while Pettittes amount of postseason experience was boosted by him having very good teammates, one cannot discount the fact that Pettitte made big contributions to his teams making the playoffs (and advancing so far) so often. It wasn't a mere coincidence.


How much should we value Pettittes (mostly good) postseason play? How should that be weighted against the peak and longevity i sues? I don't know, but it matters, and it is one more reason his Hall of Fame case is fun to discu s.



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